Tick... Tock... AGI

When do experts think Artificial General Intelligence will arrive?

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"InowthinkxAIhasachanceofreachingAGIwithGrok5.Neverthoughtthatbefore."

- Elon Musk, xAI (2025)

Expert Timeline

5 days ago
I now think xAI has a chance of reaching AGI with Grok 5. Never thought that before.

“I now think xAI has a chance of reaching AGI with Grok 5. Never thought that before.”

Elon Musk · xAISource
Elon Musk · xAI - 5 days agoSource
7 days ago
Demis Hassabis describes the world 10 years from now. Full AGI being achieved and ushers in a new golden age of science

“Demis Hassabis describes the world 10 years from now. Full AGI being achieved and ushers in a new golden age of science”

Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMindSource
Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMind - 7 days agoSource
19 days ago
Over the next 5 years we're going to see agentic AI, robotics, and massive global data centre expansion

“Over the next 5 years we're going to see agentic AI, robotics, and massive global data centre expansion”

Jensen Huang · NVIDIASource
Jensen Huang · NVIDIA - 19 days agoSource
20 days ago
Estimates for achieving AGI vary widely, ranging from a few months to a decade or more; for superintelligence, the timeline ranges from a few years to never

“Estimates for achieving AGI vary widely, ranging from a few months to a decade or more; for superintelligence, the timeline ranges from a few years to never”

Alexandr Wang · Scale AISource
Alexandr Wang · Scale AI - 20 days agoSource
1 month ago
The development of conscious AI can be developed using today's technologies coupled with some that are expected to mature within the next 2-3 years

“The development of conscious AI can be developed using today's technologies coupled with some that are expected to mature within the next 2-3 years”

Mustafa Suleyman · Microsoft AISource
Mustafa Suleyman · Microsoft AI - 1 month agoSource
1 month ago
We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents 'join the workforce' and materially change the output of companies

“We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents 'join the workforce' and materially change the output of companies”

Sam Altman · OpenAISource
Sam Altman · OpenAI - 1 month agoSource
1 month ago
We already observe these models assisting scientists. But when they can engage in long-term projects—when they can autonomously establish research agendas—the world will experience a meaningful transformation.

“We already observe these models assisting scientists. But when they can engage in long-term projects—when they can autonomously establish research agendas—the world will experience a meaningful transformation.”

Jakub Pachocki · OpenAISource
Jakub Pachocki · OpenAI - 1 month agoSource
1 month ago
AGI could emerge within five to ten years, potentially ushering in a new era of radical abundance

“AGI could emerge within five to ten years, potentially ushering in a new era of radical abundance”

Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMindSource
Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMind - 1 month agoSource
1 month ago
As for whether AI will have reached AGI by 2030, I would say we will just fall short of that timeline. My sense is it's slightly after that

“As for whether AI will have reached AGI by 2030, I would say we will just fall short of that timeline. My sense is it's slightly after that”

Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMindSource
Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMind - 1 month agoSource
2 months ago
I expect substantial progress in autonomous AI research by the end of the decade, with the first practical applications—such as AI systems that can create software 'almost autonomously'—possibly arriving this year

“I expect substantial progress in autonomous AI research by the end of the decade, with the first practical applications—such as AI systems that can create software 'almost autonomously'—possibly arriving this year”

Jakub Pachocki · OpenAISource
Jakub Pachocki · OpenAI - 2 months agoSource
2 months ago
I think it's a high probability that it's two years away, but I think within the next five to seven years

“I think it's a high probability that it's two years away, but I think within the next five to seven years”

Mustafa Suleyman · Microsoft AISource
Mustafa Suleyman · Microsoft AI - 2 months agoSource
2 months ago
The opportunity space over the next 10 or 20 years is bigger than anything we've seen in the past

“The opportunity space over the next 10 or 20 years is bigger than anything we've seen in the past”

Sundar Pichai · Google (Alphabet)Source
Sundar Pichai · Google (Alphabet) - 2 months agoSource
3 months ago
By 2030, AI will undergo a dramatic transformation—one that will bring about a revolution in the physical world

“By 2030, AI will undergo a dramatic transformation—one that will bring about a revolution in the physical world”

Yann LeCun · MetaSource
Yann LeCun · Meta - 3 months agoSource
3 months ago
By next year, he expects 'the arrival of agents that can do real cognitive work,' fundamentally transforming software development. The following year could bring 'systems that can figure out novel insights'—meaning AI that generates original discoveries rather than merely processing existing knowledge. By 2027, we might see 'robots that can do tasks in the real world.'

“By next year, he expects 'the arrival of agents that can do real cognitive work,' fundamentally transforming software development. The following year could bring 'systems that can figure out novel insights'—meaning AI that generates original discoveries rather than merely processing existing knowledge. By 2027, we might see 'robots that can do tasks in the real world.'”

Sam Altman · OpenAISource
Sam Altman · OpenAI - 3 months agoSource
4 months ago
Solving a Millennium Prize problem could be just 2-5 years away.

“Solving a Millennium Prize problem could be just 2-5 years away.”

Greg Brockman · OpenAISource
Greg Brockman · OpenAI - 4 months agoSource
4 months ago
We'll just fall short of that timeline [2030] but by 2030, there'll be such dramatic progress.

“We'll just fall short of that timeline [2030] but by 2030, there'll be such dramatic progress.”

Sundar Pichai · Google (Alphabet)Source
Sundar Pichai · Google (Alphabet) - 4 months agoSource
5 months ago
We could witness its emergence as early as 2030.

“We could witness its emergence as early as 2030.”

Jakub Pachocki · OpenAISource
Jakub Pachocki · OpenAI - 5 months agoSource
5 months ago
AGI could be here in 5-10 years.

“AGI could be here in 5-10 years.”

Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMindSource
Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMind - 5 months agoSource
6 months ago
Advanced machine intelligence will be viable in three to five years.

“Advanced machine intelligence will be viable in three to five years.”

Yann LeCun · MetaSource
Yann LeCun · Meta - 6 months agoSource
8 months ago
Wang said he believes that it'll take within two to four years to reach artificial general intelligence.

“Wang said he believes that it'll take within two to four years to reach artificial general intelligence.”

Alexandr Wang · Scale AISource
Alexandr Wang · Scale AI - 8 months agoSource
8 months ago
I'm more confident than I've ever been that we're close to powerful capabilities in the next 2-3 years.

“I'm more confident than I've ever been that we're close to powerful capabilities in the next 2-3 years.”

Dario Amodei · AnthropicSource
Dario Amodei · Anthropic - 8 months agoSource
10 months ago
I think within the next five to seven years we could be looking at five generations potentially taking up to 10 years.

“I think within the next five to seven years we could be looking at five generations potentially taking up to 10 years.”

Mustafa Suleyman · Microsoft AISource
Mustafa Suleyman · Microsoft AI - 10 months agoSource
10 months ago
My guess is we will hit AGI sooner than most people in the world think and it will matter much less.

“My guess is we will hit AGI sooner than most people in the world think and it will matter much less.”

Sam Altman · OpenAISource
Sam Altman · OpenAI - 10 months agoSource
1 year ago
If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years.

“If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years.”

Elon Musk · xAISource
Elon Musk · xAI - 1 year agoSource
2 years ago
If I presented an AI with every conceivable examination, I predict that in five years, we will excel in every single one.

“If I presented an AI with every conceivable examination, I predict that in five years, we will excel in every single one.”

Jensen Huang · NVIDIASource
Jensen Huang · NVIDIA - 2 years agoSource

Median midpoint: November 30, 2028 (0 days from now).

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