Tick... Tock... AGI

When do experts think Artificial General Intelligence will arrive?

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"Ifwedon'thavemodels[by2030]thatareextraordinarilycapableanddothingsthatweourselvescannotdo,I'dbeverysurprised"

- Sam Altman, OpenAI (2025)

Expert Timeline

13 days ago
If we don't have models [by 2030] that are extraordinarily capable and do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised

“If we don't have models [by 2030] that are extraordinarily capable and do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised”

Sam Altman · OpenAISource
Sam Altman · OpenAI - 13 days agoSource
23 days ago
I now think xAI has a chance of reaching AGI with Grok 5. Never thought that before.

“I now think xAI has a chance of reaching AGI with Grok 5. Never thought that before.”

Elon Musk · xAISource
Elon Musk · xAI - 23 days agoSource
26 days ago
I think that we are maybe 5 to 10 years away from having an AGI system

“ I think that we are maybe 5 to 10 years away from having an AGI system”

Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMindSource
Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMind - 26 days agoSource
2 months ago
Conscious AI can be built with technologies that exist today along with some that will mature over the next 2-3 years.

“Conscious AI can be built with technologies that exist today along with some that will mature over the next 2-3 years.”

Mustafa Suleyman · Microsoft AISource
Mustafa Suleyman · Microsoft AI - 2 months agoSource
4 months ago
Solving a Millennium Prize problem could be just 2-5 years away.

“Solving a Millennium Prize problem could be just 2-5 years away.”

Greg Brockman · OpenAISource
Greg Brockman · OpenAI - 4 months agoSource
4 months ago
2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.

“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”

Sam Altman · OpenAISource
Sam Altman · OpenAI - 4 months agoSource
4 months ago
I don’t think we’ll quite get there by 2030, so my sense is it’s slightly after that

“I don’t think we’ll quite get there by 2030, so my sense is it’s slightly after that”

Sundar Pichai · Google (Alphabet)Source
Sundar Pichai · Google (Alphabet) - 4 months agoSource
4 months ago
Here are my 50/50 bets on AI timelines: end-to-end tax prep for my business by 2028, and continual on-the-job learning by 2032.

“Here are my 50/50 bets on AI timelines: end-to-end tax prep for my business by 2028, and continual on-the-job learning by 2032.”

Dwarkesh Patel · Dwarkesh PodcastSource
Dwarkesh Patel · Dwarkesh Podcast - 4 months agoSource
5 months ago
As for whether we will have reached AGI before 2030, I'm just after

“As for whether we will have reached AGI before 2030, I'm just after”

Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMindSource
Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMind - 5 months agoSource
5 months ago
I expect we’ll see very substantial progress toward what I consider AGI before 2030

“I expect we’ll see very substantial progress toward what I consider AGI before 2030”

Jakub Pachocki · OpenAISource
Jakub Pachocki · OpenAI - 5 months agoSource
6 months ago
AGI could emerge within five to ten years, potentially ushering in a new era of radical abundance

“AGI could emerge within five to ten years, potentially ushering in a new era of radical abundance”

Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMindSource
Demis Hassabis · Google DeepMind - 6 months agoSource
6 months ago
When I say AGI can automate all work, I'm saying literally everything and that would be around 2045.

“When I say AGI can automate all work, I'm saying literally everything and that would be around 2045.”

Ege Erdil · MechanizeSource
Ege Erdil · Mechanize - 6 months agoSource
6 months ago
My timeline for a 'drop-in remote worker replacement' is closer to 2040.

“My timeline for a 'drop-in remote worker replacement' is closer to 2040.”

Tamay Besiroglu · MechanizeSource
Tamay Besiroglu · Mechanize - 6 months agoSource
6 months ago
We name the scenario after 2027 because that is when this starts to pay off. The intelligence explosion gets into full swing.

“We name the scenario after 2027 because that is when this starts to pay off. The intelligence explosion gets into full swing.”

Scott Alexander · AI 2027 ProjectSource
Scott Alexander · AI 2027 Project - 6 months agoSource
7 months ago
Advanced machine intelligence will be viable in three to five years.

“Advanced machine intelligence will be viable in three to five years.”

Yann LeCun · MetaSource
Yann LeCun · Meta - 7 months agoSource
9 months ago
I think we are sort of in the 2 to 4 years range to get to AGI

“I think we are sort of in the 2 to 4 years range to get to AGI”

Alexandr Wang · Scale AISource
Alexandr Wang · Scale AI - 9 months agoSource
9 months ago
I'm more confident than I've ever been that we're close to powerful capabilities in the next 2-3 years.

“I'm more confident than I've ever been that we're close to powerful capabilities in the next 2-3 years.”

Dario Amodei · AnthropicSource
Dario Amodei · Anthropic - 9 months agoSource
9 months ago
I think AGI will probably get developed during this president’s term

“I think AGI will probably get developed during this president’s term”

Sam Altman · OpenAISource
Sam Altman · OpenAI - 9 months agoSource
10 months ago
I think within the next five to seven years, up to 10 years away depending on how things go

“I think within the next five to seven years, up to 10 years away depending on how things go”

Mustafa Suleyman · Microsoft AISource
Mustafa Suleyman · Microsoft AI - 10 months agoSource
1 year ago
Reaching Human-Level AI will take several years if not a decade.

“Reaching Human-Level AI will take several years if not a decade.”

Yann LeCun · MetaSource
Yann LeCun · Meta - 1 year agoSource
2 years ago
If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years.

“If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years.”

Elon Musk · xAISource
Elon Musk · xAI - 2 years agoSource
2 years ago
If I presented an AI with every conceivable examination, I predict that in five years, we will excel in every single one.

“If I presented an AI with every conceivable examination, I predict that in five years, we will excel in every single one.”

Jensen Huang · NVIDIASource
Jensen Huang · NVIDIA - 2 years agoSource

Median midpoint: March 18, 2029 (0 days from now).

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