This project tracks a small set of public AGI timelines so the countdown updates when the underlying data changes.
We curated 25 leaders who either run major AI organizations, directly shape frontier-model research, or influence the pace of deployment. Limiting the list to active builders keeps the dataset small but grounded in people with privileged context. The trade-off is obvious: it can over-index on Silicon Valley voices and miss perspectives from governance, academia, or critics. Treat the list as a snapshot of insiders—not an unbiased poll.
We simply take the newest timeline from each expert and compute the median of those projected arrival dates. No weighting or modeling— just a straight middle of the latest insider expectations.
Every entry links back to the original statement so you can read the full context for yourself.
“My guess is we will hit AGI sooner than most people in the world think and it will matter much less.”View source
“Solving a Millennium Prize problem could be just 2-5 years away.”View source
“We could witness its emergence as early as 2030.”View source
“AGI could be here in 5-10 years.”View source
“We'll just fall short of that timeline [2030] but by 2030, there'll be such dramatic progress.”View source
“I'm more confident than I've ever been that we're close to powerful capabilities in the next 2-3 years.”View source
“If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years.”View source
“I think within the next five to seven years we could be looking at five generations potentially taking up to 10 years.”View source
“Advanced machine intelligence will be viable in three to five years.”View source
“If I presented an AI with every conceivable examination, I predict that in five years, we will excel in every single one.”View source
“Wang said he believes that it'll take within two to four years to reach artificial general intelligence.”View source
“I now think xAI has a chance of reaching AGI with Grok 5. Never thought that before.”View source
“Demis Hassabis describes the world 10 years from now. Full AGI being achieved and ushers in a new golden age of science”View source
“Estimates for achieving AGI vary widely, ranging from a few months to a decade or more; for superintelligence, the timeline ranges from a few years to never”View source
“We are now confident we know how to build AGI as we have traditionally understood it. We believe that, in 2025, we may see the first AI agents 'join the workforce' and materially change the output of companies”View source
“We already observe these models assisting scientists. But when they can engage in long-term projects—when they can autonomously establish research agendas—the world will experience a meaningful transformation.”View source
“The development of conscious AI can be developed using today's technologies coupled with some that are expected to mature within the next 2-3 years”View source
“By 2030, AI will undergo a dramatic transformation—one that will bring about a revolution in the physical world”View source
“Over the next 5 years we're going to see agentic AI, robotics, and massive global data centre expansion”View source
“As for whether AI will have reached AGI by 2030, I would say we will just fall short of that timeline. My sense is it's slightly after that”View source
“I expect substantial progress in autonomous AI research by the end of the decade, with the first practical applications—such as AI systems that can create software 'almost autonomously'—possibly arriving this year”View source
“I think it's a high probability that it's two years away, but I think within the next five to seven years”View source
“By next year, he expects 'the arrival of agents that can do real cognitive work,' fundamentally transforming software development. The following year could bring 'systems that can figure out novel insights'—meaning AI that generates original discoveries rather than merely processing existing knowledge. By 2027, we might see 'robots that can do tasks in the real world.'”View source
“AGI could emerge within five to ten years, potentially ushering in a new era of radical abundance”View source
“The opportunity space over the next 10 or 20 years is bigger than anything we've seen in the past”View source