This project tracks a small set of public AGI timelines so the countdown updates when the underlying data changes.
We curated 22 leaders who either run major AI organizations, directly shape frontier-model research, or influence the pace of deployment. Limiting the list to active builders keeps the dataset small but grounded in people with privileged context. The trade-off is obvious: it can over-index on Silicon Valley voices and miss perspectives from governance, academia, or critics. Treat the list as a snapshot of insiders—not an unbiased poll.
We simply take the newest timeline from each expert and compute the median of those projected arrival dates. No weighting or modeling— just a straight middle of the latest insider expectations.
Every entry links back to the original statement so you can read the full context for yourself.
“I think AGI will probably get developed during this president’s term”View source
“Solving a Millennium Prize problem could be just 2-5 years away.”View source
“I expect we’ll see very substantial progress toward what I consider AGI before 2030”View source
“AGI could emerge within five to ten years, potentially ushering in a new era of radical abundance”View source
“I don’t think we’ll quite get there by 2030, so my sense is it’s slightly after that”View source
“I'm more confident than I've ever been that we're close to powerful capabilities in the next 2-3 years.”View source
“If you define AGI as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years.”View source
“I think within the next five to seven years, up to 10 years away depending on how things go”View source
“Advanced machine intelligence will be viable in three to five years.”View source
“If I presented an AI with every conceivable examination, I predict that in five years, we will excel in every single one.”View source
“I think we are sort of in the 2 to 4 years range to get to AGI”View source
“I now think xAI has a chance of reaching AGI with Grok 5. Never thought that before.”View source
“ I think that we are maybe 5 to 10 years away from having an AGI system”View source
“Conscious AI can be built with technologies that exist today along with some that will mature over the next 2-3 years.”View source
“Reaching Human-Level AI will take several years if not a decade.”View source
“As for whether we will have reached AGI before 2030, I'm just after”View source
“If we don't have models [by 2030] that are extraordinarily capable and do things that we ourselves cannot do, I'd be very surprised”View source
“2027 may see the arrival of robots that can do tasks in the real world.”View source
“Here are my 50/50 bets on AI timelines: end-to-end tax prep for my business by 2028, and continual on-the-job learning by 2032.”View source
“When I say AGI can automate all work, I'm saying literally everything and that would be around 2045.”View source
“My timeline for a 'drop-in remote worker replacement' is closer to 2040.”View source
“We name the scenario after 2027 because that is when this starts to pay off. The intelligence explosion gets into full swing.”View source